And Android's exponential growth is rather overhyped for now. Yes, I believe
it will be successful, but will it be as successful as hyped right now,
nobody has any idea. We only have a single datapoint to measure Android
growth from so far – G1/Dream sales in Q4, 2008. And it is very easy to
project exponential growth from a few hundred thousand devices sold.
http://www.unwiredview.com/2009/05/11/android-s...

We still have to see how Android devices being launched right now will do in
the market. Yes, there is interest among consumers in Android devices, and
it might be rather strong. But while Android phones currently on the market
(G1, Magic, Galaxy, Hero) might have been selling well, none were a runaway
hit like the iPhone. I'm not sure any of them beat Nokia 5800 or even N97
in monthly sales. And the number of vendors/carriers releasing handsets
with the new OS does not mean that much. Just look at Windows Mobile.

Regarding Maemo, Nokia's position is that Symbian the only platform for it's
smartphones. For new type of devices like Nokia N900 they have developed
their own OS. Symbian will get a major interface update, and QT app
framework (the same Maemo will start using in Q1 2010) in Q4 2010 Symbian^4.
From then on (as everyone keeprs promising, though I still have some
doubts), the apps written in QT will work both on Maemo and Symbian devices.

Symbian and Windows Mobile are the two falling phone platforms. That is, they're rapidly losing market share. Symbian has a bit over 50% of the worldwide smartphone market. That's still huge, and gives it some falling space. It can afford to fall a bit more, as it works to add more features, and still be big. This gives Symbian a good chance of a turn around.

On the other hand, Windows Mobile, which used to have over 20% of the market, has now dropped to just 9%, which I think is an unrecoverable position. It has no room to fall further, but it must as it suffers interminable delays to bring out its next version 7 operating system. I think the combination of low market share plus further delays puts Windows Mobile into a death spiral. The article says that some vendors are “flocking” to Windows Mobile. That may be so, but at 9%, the public has firmly rejected it.

On the other hand, Android is rising exponentially. Maybe Google is evil, as Lee says. On the other hand, maybe people actually like using Google's cloud services. It seems the public want the interface of iPhone. Android is doing well, as it creates an interface similar to what iPhone is doing. Symbian really needs to create a similar interface. Quickly. I hope it can, and I hope it does well.

I would have liked the interview to ask Lee Williams about Nokia's other OS… Maemo. Nokia seems to be putting its energies towards Maemo, making Symbian look like a lost stepchild. Maemo will give customers an iPhone-like interface. Maemo can also leverage some existing Linux software, reformatted for a smaller screen. What does this mean for Symbian? Or maybe there's room in the market for both.