It is, however, just stating the obvious. With the tremendous growth that Android has seen in the past year, and only about one percentage point standing between it and second place, it was clearly only a matter of time, since RIM’s newest smartphone efforts aren’t doing that well.
Gartner also echoes IDC in claiming that by 2014, the two dominant smartphone platforms will be Symbian and Android. Gartner has Symbian lower in 2014, at 30.2% (compared to IDC’s prediction of 32.9%) and Android higher at 29.6% (compared to IDC’s 24.6%), but these are all just forecasts, so the numbers don’t matter that much.
The trends, however, do. And what the analysts are saying is that Android will continue to grow, but its growth will be slowing down from now on. Also, Symbian will continue to lose market share bit by bit, but at a much slower pace than some tech pundits may have anticipated.
RIM will start to lose market share too, albeit also slowly. While iOS has peaked (and this is yet another confirmation of that) and will continue to stay at around 15% of the smartphone market.
Of course, if someone had told me a year ago that by the end of 2010 Android would be No.2, I would have laughed at them. A lot. But, as we’ve seen with that, things can change so fast in this industry that such predictions shouldn’t be taken for granted.
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