What the heck’s happening with this Android stuff? All was peachy with the Android 1.0, Android 1.1, Android 1.5 Cupcake, and even Android 1.6 Donut releases.

Google will make OS available, cellphone vendors will take the package and make cool smartphones with it. Everyone gets the same version and releases handsets with it, accordingly.

Then came the announcement of Android 2.0 running Verizon/Motorola Droid, release of Android 2.0 SDK to developers, and things started getting really confusing.

With much more advanced and visually appealing Android 2.0 available, and already running on one phone, one would expect other vendors to jump on the bandwagon, and announce Eclair running handsets as soon as they can.

But no, all others, announcing their Android smartphones, for some mysterious reason, are using the old 1.6 Donut version of the OS.  Even for the high end models, that will ship only next year, like Sony Ericsson Xperia X10, or other Verizon Droid series handsets, like HTC Eris.

And I think,  I know what this reason is.

There simply is no 2.0 version of Android operating system yet. At least in a way, we usually consider a software package to be ready for a version X.0 number.

What we do have as an OS, Google, Motorola and Verizon call Android 2.0 for marketing purposes, is a pre-release/beta version of the software, optimized to run on a single device by a single vendor.

If you think it’s unlikely that Google will give one vendor such a strong preference, to launch a competing device, with a more advanced version of OS, think again.

This is exactly the same thing Google did last year, when they really wanted to get their OS into the market, before the year/holiday season was over. Google worked directly with HTC, optimizing the unfinished operating system to run on a single handset. Then they called it Android 1.0, and launched HTC G1/Dream handset running on it. With tons of unfinished/absent features, bugs and all.

Even Andy Rubin himself admitted, that Android 1.0 wasn’t really a software package worthy of 1.0 tag. Android reached that level only with the release of the Cupcake 1.5/Donut 1.6 updates. That’s when all other vendors felt that the software was actually ready for their phones, and got busy releasing them.

The launch of Motorola Droid, is sort of a deja vu of the things that happened last year.

Close integration work exclusively for a single handset, from a single vendor. Advanced version of the OS, not available to other vendors. The feeling of a rushed job, manifesting in illogically unfinished/absent features (see the dismal multimedia/sync experience, camera issues, universal search limitations, laginess of basic UI elements, etc;  that Gizmodo found on Droid).

All are the mirror thing of the problems the original G1 faced in November 2008.

So, to anyone waiting for another Android 2.0 handset to be released anytime soon, sorry. You won’t be seeing any of them this year. If ever.

My guess is, that Android 2.0 will remain exclusive to Motorola Droid/Milestone. Just like Android 1.0 was exclusive to HTC Dream/G1.

The rest of us, who will not pick up Droid, will have to wait for the release of Android 2.1/Flan, to get our hands on the next generation Android goodness. The handsets with which should be announced in February 2010, and start shipping sometime in March/April.

• Will HTC Hero skip Android 2.0 upgrade and go directly to Android 2.1/Flan?
• Samsung Spica and BigFoot Android 2.0/ Donut phone details leaked
• Motorola Verizon Droid X (& D2?) on June 23. New Blur, Android 2.1.9 and Flash support inside?
• Google Maps Navigation for Android 1.6 released
• Samsung Google Nexus S musings. Why the heck did Google even bother to launch it?

Some of them turn out to be a complete BS, a few happen to be spot on, and quite a few are somewhere in the middle. I’d like to share them to get some input of whether I’m going completely bonkers, or not.

So I’m starting a new category of posts on UV – “Wild arsed theories” or WAT – just for this purpose. These will be a pure speculation on my part, based on some things I see happing in the market.

Today lets start with the Android stuff.  With the release of Motorola Milestone in Europe, two questions have been buggering me.

1. Why there’s no Google’s  free turn-by-turn navigation app in a European version of Droid (Motorola Milestone).

2. What’s happening with the frigging Android OS upgrades? First we get Android 1.6 Donut upgrade. Then, in a few weeks, a phone running Android 2.0/Eclair comes out. However none of the other Android handsets, coming out this year, mention anything about Android 2.0.  All of them, apparently, are still running Android 1.6. Even uber high end Sony Ericsson Xperia X10, announced today, but due only in Q1 2010.

Well, I think, I may have answers to both of these questions. Let’s start with the first today, and get to second tomorrow.

Why there is no free turn-by-turn navigation in Motorola Milestone? And it ain’t comig anytime soon

It all comes down to the mapping data. Take a look at these screenshots:

See the difference? The copyright notice for the area around Kansas City says that map data is owned by Google. The same notice for London says that map data is owned by Tele Atlas.

And it’s the same all over the world. Play a bit with Google maps yourself. What you will see is that the map data anywhere in the United States is owned by Google. Even in remote places like Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico.

Just cross the border, to Canada or Mexico, and another company name springs up in the map data ownership field.  TeleAtlas, INEGO, Europa Technologies, etc;

What this tells us is, that, for now, Google has collected enough of it’s own mapping  data only for the United States. And since they own the data there, they are free to use it however they like. Including provision of a free turn-by-turn navigation services, that screws the business model for paid nav service and gadget providers like Garmin and TomTom.

But all the mapping data for Western Europe in Google maps, is provided by TeleAtlas, owned by Tom Tom. Do you think Tom Tom is eager to provide Google with the data that could destroy their paid service and the main income source? I am pretty sure, that somewhere in a contract between Tele Atlas and Google, there is a clause, explicitly forbidding Google to offer tbt navigation, using Tele Atlas data.

So now what? Tough luck for us, Europeans? No free navigation from Google here?

Yes. For now.

But don’t think Google is sitting still and won’t be able to collect all that European map data for itself. Those Google Street View  cars are not driving around just for fun.

We know that Google is able to collect it’s own mapping data and they are heavily investing in it. They already did so in the U.S, after all. And as soon as Google has enough of it for Western Europe, the navigation services will come here too.

Thank’s to OScarB and vowe for pointing me in the right derection

• Motorola Milestone (Droid) officially launched in Europe. Gets multi-touch, loses free navigation
• Apple patents iPhone Mobile Navigation / Mapping App
• Motorola Milestone XT720 to hit the UK on July 2
• Google Maps Navigation for Android 1.6 released
• New Google-Tele Atlas deal will give users improved maps, chance to change the world